The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
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Pakistan has announced the creation of a new Army Rocket Force equipped with advanced technology to strengthen its combat capabilities. The announcement was made by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who also commented on the recent military confrontation with India and expressed gratitude to various countries for their support.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said Parliament's Monsoon session is like a 'Vijay Utsav' as the Indian armed forces achieved their objectives under Operation Sindoor 100 per cent, and expressed confidence that the MPs will articulate this sentiment in one voice.
Large tariffs by the United States administration and elevated geopolitical risk have increased near-term global financial stability risks, and along with weather events pose downside risks to domestic growth, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in the foreword to the Financial Stability Report released on Monday.
The government on Tuesday appointed three external members -- Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya and Nagesh Kumar -- to the RBI's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee for four years. The central government has reconstituted the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI, the finance ministry said in a statement. Ram Singh is the director of the Delhi School of Economics, Saugata Bhattacharya is an economist, and Nagesh Kumar is the director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi.
The life and non-life insurance industries are hopeful of a reduction in the goods and services tax (GST) on health and life insurance premiums, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his speech on Friday, announced GST relaxations aimed at providing relief to ordinary citizens, farmers, the middle class, and the small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector.
Pakistan on Tuesday increased its defence budget by 20 per cent, allocating PRs. 2,550 billion ($9 billion) for the fiscal year 2025-26, amid tensions with India.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
All six members of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) expressed caution over food inflation during the December review, while two external members warned about high real interest rates as headline inflation approaches its target of 4 per cent. The central bank continued to maintain the status quo on both the repo rate and the stance in the December monetary policy. India's retail inflation in November rose to 5.5 per cent - its fastest pace in three months - due to higher food prices.
Taxpayers have been advised to file accurate particulars of their income and contact details, and not to fall prey to agents or intermediaries promising undue refunds.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
'RBI is already late in addressing inflation pressures.'
'Things may get much worse before they get better,' predicts Ajay Chhibber.
He argued that if inflation is low, stable and moving towards the 4 per cent target, why has the RBI not revised downward the bank rate fixed in June 2023?
SEBI's blockbuster reforms are rewriting the rules of mutual fund investing -- faster growth, sharper transparency, and smarter safeguards that put investors first, explains Ramalingam Kalirajan.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
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The spike in food prices at the onset of the monsoon season has corroborated the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the State of the Economy report of the central bank said. At the same time, the report said that the country is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding some sequential moderation in economic activity in June. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate increased to 4.8 per cent in June 2023, from 4.3 per cent in May, primarily on account of an increase in food inflation.
Inflation rate during August, the data for which is yet to be released, was likely to remain at about 7 per cent, said SBI Ecowrap.
In a pump and dump operation, fraudsters artificially inflate the price of a stock by spreading misleading or false information, creating a frenzy among unsuspecting retail investors.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in April, it had also trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
Reserve Bank on Thursday retained the growth and inflation projection at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal amid expectations of a normal monsoon. In its last bi-monthly monetary policy review in June, RBI had projected real GDP growth and retail inflation at the same.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
'It will be an explosion of zoonotic diseases from these places.' 'People will not be able to live or work for kilometres around these places where thousands of street dogs are kept.'
Wholesale price-based inflation spiked to a record high of 15.08 per cent in April on rising prices across segments from food to commodities. The WPI-based inflation was 14.55 per cent in March and 10.74 per cent in April last year. "The high rate of inflation in April 2022 was primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, food articles, non-food articles, food products and chemicals & chemical products etc. as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.
The move is to align affordable housing finance flows to the increase in property costs and inflation, says Raghu Mohan.
A panel headed by Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Urjit Patel recommended in January moving to an inflation target.
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
The Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said that the "momentum of inflation is on a downward slope" and the central bank would continue to strike a delicate balance between the need to contain price rise and ensure economic growth. The Reserve Bank's inflation projections, Das said, are "robust" but contingent on downside and upside risks associated with the movement of global crude oil prices. The RBI takes into account a particular range within which crude prices are expected to fluctuate considering all the factors that can be anticipated and that can be sort of foreseen as of today, he said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the 11th time in a row but sharply lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal, as against earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on interest rate despite July-September quarter GDP growth falling to 7-quarter low of 5.4 per cent, as against its own projection of 7 per cent.
The RBI's monetary policy committee is expected cut benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in its policy review meeting next month to push growth, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Thursday. "We expect the headline inflation in FY25 to cool off to 4.7 per cent. Monetary easing may be limited to 75 bps in FY26," Ind-Ra Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, Devendra Kumar Pant said.
